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CURSOS

Production Forecasting and Reserves Estimates in Unconventional Reservoirs

John Lee Ph.D., B.ChE, M.S.
Descripción del instructor

Holds the Cullen Distinguished University Chair and is a Professor of Petroleum Engineering at the University of Houston. Until September, 2011, he held the L.F. Peterson Endowed Chair and was a Regents Professor of Petroleum Engineering at Texas A&M University. John received B.ChE, M.S., and PhD degrees in Chemical Engineering from the Georgia Institute of Technology. He spent 15 years with ExxonMobil, leading teams on reservoir studies, and joined the Texas A&M faculty in 1977. While at A&M, he also worked with S.A. Holditch & Associates, petroleum engineering consultants, from 1980 to 1999, specializing in reservoir engineering aspects of low permeability gas reservoirs. He served as an Academic Engineering Fellow with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission from October 2007 to December 2008. As an SEC Fellow, he coordinated the technical aspects of the SEC’s modernization of oil and gas reporting regulations. He has received numerous awards from the Society of Petroleum Engineers, including the Anthony Lucas Medal, the DeGolyer Medal, and Honorary Membership. He is a member of the U.S. National Academy of Engineering and the Russian Academy of Natural Science.

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ABOUT THE COURSE 

 

COURSE OBJECTIVE

Understanding and mitigatThis course provides participants with the skills and understanding required to forecast production and estimate reserves in unconventional (ultra-low permeability) reservoirs, mostly gas but with some applications to oil. The course will emphasize gas shale and tight gas formations.

 

WHO SHOULD ATTEND

This course is designed for experienced engineers, geoscientists, and other physical scientists who have an interest in evaluating unconventional oil and gas resources. Previous experience with unconventional resources is not necessary. 

 

 

COURSE CONTENT

 

1. BACKGROUND

  • Basic fluid flow theory
  • Transient radial flow
  • Transient linear flow
  • Stabilized (boundary-dominated) flow
  • Type-curve analysis

 

2. PRODUCTION FORECASTING

  • Production decline models

          - Arps model

          -  Minimum terminal decline

          - Stretched exponential model

          -  Long-duration linear flow model

          -    Duong model

  • Advanced decline analysis
  • Analytical models for forecasting

 

3. RESERVES ESTIMATION AND REGULATIONS AND REPORTING FOR UNCONVENTIONAL RESERVOIRS

  • SPE Petroleum Resources Management System (PRMS)
  • U.S. Securities & Exchange Commission regulations
  • Application of PRMS to Unconventional Resources

  

4. ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF UNCONVENTIONAL RESOURCE DEVELOPMENT

 

5. CASE HISTORIES

  • Reserves estimates in tight gas reservoirs
  • Bakken shale oil (reservoir characterization) 
  • Piceance tight gas (microseismic surveys)
  • Marcellus shale gas (analytical modeling)

 

6. STATISTICAL METHODS FOR ESTIMATING PROVED UNDEVELOPED RESERVES IN RESOURCE PLAYS

  • Review of SPEE Monograph 3

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